Equities, our investment approach.

Too many uncertainties are currently weighing on markets, amid unfavourable valuations, for us to expose our portfolios unduly to major market risks. In this regard, we have maintained our neutral view on the two main asset classes - bonds and equities - as well as our modest overexposure to Chinese equities. We kept up our equity exposure on account of the fading risk of a recession in the US, now all but removed, and of the stronger-than-expected resilience of the global economy.

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More than a victory, a triumph

Donald Trump and the Republicans have won full control of the White House and Congress. This scenario, which came with rather low odds in the opinion polls, has extended the “Trump trade” (bullish equity market and rising US long-term yields and dollar) and has this time around created a wider dichotomy between the United States and Europe (where equity indices and long-term yields are declining). Investors have focused on the Republican candidate’s promises of lower corporate taxes and deregulation in the US and rising tariffs for other trade partners – Europe included. 
They have also factored in deeper public deficits (rising real and nominal rates) and higher inflationary risks (rising inflation break-even rates). Markets have experienced violent swings since early October and the beginning of the “Trump trade”, with the S&P500 outperforming the Eurostoxx 50 by almost 9%.

The Republican candidate's victory has now been confirmed. D. Trump becomes the 47th president in the history of the United States. He particularly benefited from the crisis of confidence among Americans regarding the economic situation in their country, with over 50% of them indicating it was their main concern, according to exit polls.