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The market movement observed in recent weeks fits into a rather classic mechanism, similar to a pendulum swinging from excess fear to relief. However, this time, the breadth of the movement reflects more than a simple technical adjustment. After a phase of brutal escalation in the Middle East, the intensity and speed of the rebound posted by risk assets was particularly surprising. Indeed, this upward move ranks within the 100th percentile of 10-day rallies recorded by the S&P since 1950, lifted by growth stocks – and notably tech-related sectors (hardware, semi-conductors and memories). As if investors, already hardened by the series of shocks in recent years – pandemic, Ukraine, trade tensions – had already factored in the idea that whatever the geopolitical crisis, it is followed by rapid normalisation.

Yet behind this rebound, the change in fundamentals has been more subtle, if not concerning. Far from having abated, the energy crisis has continued to spread across the most exposed economies, notably in Asia and Europe. 

The US market is rebalancing, notably in favor of small-cap stocks, as it begins to penalize the heavy AI investments by tech giants whose profitability is uncertain.

The sharp drop in the software segment is deemed disproportionate. The market is underestimating the diversity of companies in the sector and ignoring the Jevons paradox, according to which lower costs related to AI will stimulate software demand.

In this context, we are increasing our exposure to emerging market and Japanese equities. In fixed income, we favour financial bonds, emerging market debt, and corporate hybrids, focusing on short and intermediate maturities.

Edmond de Rothschild Asset Management unveils its investment outlook for 2026, focusing on the following key themes: 

The global economy has entered the final quarter of 2025 in a state of serenity that few observers would have predicted last Spring, in the thick of the trade conflict. Six months after Liberation Day, despite a few regional disparities, global growth data has held up: according to IMF estimates, GDP is projected to grow +2.9% in 2025 and 2026 - a very similar pace to 2024. Yet the environment is weighed down by higher tariffs, record debt levels - in the US, France and even Japan - with plans to introduce fiscal stimulus, and sticky inflation, which has remained above the Fed’s targets for over four years. With GDP growth projected at +2.2%, the economy is more vigorous in the United States than in other developed countries. Investment spending is largely driven by AI, while housing investment has remained very sluggish. Consumer spending has stayed robust, but the more modest households are showing signs of weakness. The 10% most wealthy consumers account for 50% of spending, boosted by the ‘wealth effect’ when the S&P index is at its highest. All these factors suggest that private demand is less homogeneous than it seems. Europe, on the other hand, remains stuck in a hesitant recovery under new leadership from Germany - which is striving to accelerate its fiscal response. However, implementation is taking a long time, and recovery plans have not begun to support capital expenditure at this stage. Nonetheless, Europe has clearly set a new course.