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Depuis le début de l’année, les marchés obligataires évoluent dans un environnement macroéconomique mouvant, marqué par des signaux contradictoires entre les grandes zones économiques. Alors que la Chine était confrontée aux mesures protectionnistes américaines, avec en toile de fond un ralentissement de l’activité économique, l’économie américaine, longtemps perçue comme résiliente, commence à montrer des signes d’essoufflement. Les craintes d’une récession outre-Atlantique se renforcent, alimentées par la perspective d’une baisse de la consommation et une résurgence de l’inflation. 
Les investisseurs doivent ainsi composer avec des dynamiques divergentes et une visibilité limitée sur les trajectoires des taux d’intérêt aux Etats-Unis, rendant, selon nous, les stratégies obligataires flexibles plus pertinentes que jamais.

So far this year, market performances have been essentially driven by political factors. Although the S&P500 index is now returning to its pre-Liberation Day levels, all indicators suggest that CEO and consumer confidence has dived since Trump’s announcements. The market rebound seems fuelled by a notion conveyed by the Trump administration that from July 4th, the government would turn the page on protectionism and switch to its tax cut and deregulation programmes

The first weeks of Donald Trump’s mandate are unfolding at a staggering pace and in chaotic fashion, leaving observers increasingly stunned. And yet, events are proceeding as planned according to his programme. Donald Trump is doing what he said he would.

There are decades when nothing happens, and there are weeks when decades happen. This is how one might sum up the general impression after the events of the past week, so profoundly have they upset geopolitical, economic and financial balances. The scene of tensions between V. Zelenskyy and D. Trump on Friday February 28 symbolized the break-up of the Atlantic alliance and the end of the peace dividend on which Western economies and financial markets have prospered in recent decades, leading Germany to overturn its entire fiscal and constitutional framework in order to gain the means to acquire strategic independence from the United States.