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The market movement observed in recent weeks fits into a rather classic mechanism, similar to a pendulum swinging from excess fear to relief. However, this time, the breadth of the movement reflects more than a simple technical adjustment. After a phase of brutal escalation in the Middle East, the intensity and speed of the rebound posted by risk assets was particularly surprising. Indeed, this upward move ranks within the 100th percentile of 10-day rallies recorded by the S&P since 1950, lifted by growth stocks – and notably tech-related sectors (hardware, semi-conductors and memories). As if investors, already hardened by the series of shocks in recent years – pandemic, Ukraine, trade tensions – had already factored in the idea that whatever the geopolitical crisis, it is followed by rapid normalisation.

Yet behind this rebound, the change in fundamentals has been more subtle, if not concerning. Far from having abated, the energy crisis has continued to spread across the most exposed economies, notably in Asia and Europe. 

The resilience of emerging corporate debt: a driver of diversification and opportunity

Whilst emerging markets have been at the forefront of geopolitical discussions since the start of the conflict in the Middle East, emerging corporate debt markets have, so far, seen only a limited impact compared with other asset classes.
The conflict has mainly reignited inflationary fears through rising oil prices. This situation has weighed particularly heavily on long-dated bonds, regardless of where they are issued. By contrast, emerging corporate bonds, which typically have shorter average maturities, have weathered this period of tension better. 
Furthermore, exposure to regions far removed from the conflict, such as Latin America, but which are benefiting from rising oil prices, has helped to support this asset class. 

We are pleased to share that Jacques-Aurélien Marcireau  and Victoire Dubrujeaud have been included in the latest Citywire Selector ranking of PMs under 40 managing more than €1bn.