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Yield curve inversion has been around for almost two years, Europe is the theatre of a serious war, China is mired in deflation, globalisation is still stuck in a US-China trade conflict, rampant inflation has given way to a monetary shock and yet, even without a recession, risk assets have soared in today’s Goldilocks¹ environment.

Central banks have refocused markets on the pace of future rate cuts. Traders now only expect three cuts by the end of 2024 rather than the six they were hoping for in January. Some are even querying this new scenario: as a result, the dollar rose and real 10-year yields moved back to 2%.

Our infrastructure debt platform has been playing a key role in the energy transition for many years through the investments it makes.

Following comments from the Fed’s Christopher Waller that there was no rush to cut rates, investors are still unsure if the US rate-cutting cycle will start in June. It is certainly true that recent economic data, notably economic surprise indicators in various geographical zones, could encourage central banks to wait a little longer.

Central banks in Switzerland and Japan made diametrically opposing decisions over interest rates but both with the intention of influencing their currencies. The Swiss franc has risen by more than 15% since the end of 2019 and exports have failed to return to pre-Covid levels.

Until recently the “Great Resignation” theme shaped any analysis of today’s labour markets. But as the scars of the Covid-19 epidemic fade, we need to take a new approach. The jobs market is, in fact, struggling with chronic imbalances. 

Edmond de Rothschild reported a high level of net inflows, driven by its two business lines, private banking and asset management, across all its geographies.

Increasing signs of an economic slowdown are appearing in the US. Retail sales unexpectedly fell, especially the more precise “control group” data, and the NFIB confidence index for small companies also dropped.

Since the end of October 2023, the MSCI WORLD has jumped more than 20% and smashed through records¹.

The environmental infrastructure specialist, a member of the Edmond de Rothschild Private Equity partnership, also starts initial tests phase of its first vintage fund’s final investment, the Green Valley Energie biomass cogeneration plant in France.

The Super Tuesday result was crystal clear: barring some surprise event, Joe Biden will face Donald Trump in November’s presidential election. For the moment, the news has had little impact on markets.