Thought
leadership.

• Despite contradictory announcements from the Trump administration, markets reacted positively to the temporary tariff exemptions on Chinese technology imports and progress in trade talks with Japan.
• The Fed is taking a wait-and-see approach to avoid inflation expectations becoming unhinged, as the economic outlook worsens, despite solid US retail sales due to pre-tariff advance purchases. 
• The ECB is benefiting from the euro's appreciation, which gives it room for manoeuvre to ease monetary policy without worrying about the Fed's immobility.

EPISO 6, a fund managed by Tristan Capital Partners and joint venture partner Edmond de Rothschild REIM, have acquired a c.136,000 sqm logistics development in Delta 3 - Dourges (Lille area).

•    Discussions between the U.S. and Russia on implementing the partial ceasefire in the Black Sea are hindered by Moscow's demand for lifted sanctions, maintaining inflation uncertainty related to grain exports.
•    The U.S. plans to impose new tariffs of 25% on countries acquiring Venezuelan oil and auto imports, coinciding with a stricter immigration policy that may impact supply chains and economic growth.
•    In Europe, positive effects from Germany’s stimulus plan are reflected in a slight rise in the IFO business climate index, although mixed manufacturing PMIs indicate ongoing sectoral challenges alongside disappointing services indices.

Investors were caught wrong-footed as they headed into 2025: they were expecting corporate tax cuts and deregulation; instead, they are facing a new trade war. Raised tariffs were understood to be bargaining tools to secure concessions, not a priority goal. 

•    In the United States, the Senate, with some Democrat support, managed to avoid a “shutdown” and prolong the budget until September, but some Trump administration decisions are fuelling worries.
•    Germany's spending plan is revitalizing the German and European economies, driving up European stock market indices.
•    The week was also marked by several central bank meetings.

Edmond de Rothschild: assets under management reach an all-time high of CHF 184 billion.

•    Volatility surged this week, resulting in a further decline in US equities. 
•    Eurozone equity markets retreated on the back of uncertainties linked to negotiations in Germany on tax reform and the easing of the debt brake.
•    Long-term European yields continued to climb amid expectations of larger budget deficits, whereas US yields remained stable.

Following the sharp rate hikes of 2022 and 2023, which boosted profitability for banks and insurers but also caused strong liquidity pressures – that led to the spectacular collapse of Credit Suisse - 2024 was a pivotal year for the subordinated financial debt market.
Stronger balance sheets and the prospect of lower interest rates have since rekindled investor interest for these bond instruments. In today’s calmer environment, positive inflows have gradually wiped the losses recorded in earlier years, paving the way for a dynamic 2025.

The first weeks of Donald Trump’s mandate are unfolding at a staggering pace and in chaotic fashion, leaving observers increasingly stunned. And yet, events are proceeding as planned according to his programme. Donald Trump is doing what he said he would.

•    Germany launches a historic investment program to boost defense and infrastructure spending.
•    D. Trump's erratic behavior, especially concerning tariffs, has created uncertainty that weighs on American morale and has led to a decline in stock markets across the Atlantic.
•    China has unveiled its economic roadmap for 2025, maintaining a growth target of 5%, which sends a message of confidence from the authorities.

There are decades when nothing happens, and there are weeks when decades happen. This is how one might sum up the general impression after the events of the past week, so profoundly have they upset geopolitical, economic and financial balances. The scene of tensions between V. Zelenskyy and D. Trump on Friday February 28 symbolized the break-up of the Atlantic alliance and the end of the peace dividend on which Western economies and financial markets have prospered in recent decades, leading Germany to overturn its entire fiscal and constitutional framework in order to gain the means to acquire strategic independence from the United States.

•    Wall Street is down close to 4% due to mounting trade uncertainties and waning optimism over the AI theme.
•    D. Trump is fuelling uncertainty and volatility on the markets with his contradictory statements on tariffs, maintaining the March 4 date for the application of tariffs on Canada and Mexico, while increasing those on China by 10%.
•    The geopolitical context is prompting European countries to increase their defense budgets, which could lead to an easing of European fiscal constraints.