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More than a victory, a triumph

Donald Trump and the Republicans have won full control of the White House and Congress. This scenario, which came with rather low odds in the opinion polls, has extended the “Trump trade” (bullish equity market and rising US long-term yields and dollar) and has this time around created a wider dichotomy between the United States and Europe (where equity indices and long-term yields are declining). Investors have focused on the Republican candidate’s promises of lower corporate taxes and deregulation in the US and rising tariffs for other trade partners – Europe included. 
They have also factored in deeper public deficits (rising real and nominal rates) and higher inflationary risks (rising inflation break-even rates). Markets have experienced violent swings since early October and the beginning of the “Trump trade”, with the S&P500 outperforming the Eurostoxx 50 by almost 9%.

The Republican candidate's victory has now been confirmed. D. Trump becomes the 47th president in the history of the United States. He particularly benefited from the crisis of confidence among Americans regarding the economic situation in their country, with over 50% of them indicating it was their main concern, according to exit polls.

The slowdown in Chinese economic growth for the third quarter was less pronounced than expected, benefiting stock market indices.

In Europe, the economic situation has evolved with, on the one hand, a more noticeable slowdown in inflation and, on the other hand, a deterioration in economic outlooks.

In the United States, recent reports show an economy that remains resilient, both in terms of consumer activity and the labor market.

- Recent US data indicates robust economic activity and persistent inflation.
- In France, the ambitious budget proposal is causing concern among investors.
- In China, equity markets are experiencing a consolidation phase following significant gains in recent weeks.