- Geopolitical risk mounted further in the Middle East after Iran made a direct strike on Israel over the weekend.
- Crises apart, investors focused on economic fundamentals and central bank statements.
- Mounting geopolitical risk and rising bond yields took all risk assets lower over the week.
Geopolitical risk mounted further in the Middle East after Iran made a direct strike on Israel over the weekend. Nobody wants the situation to escalate but there is a risk it could happen following Thursday night’s riposte against Iran.
Crises apart, investors focused on economic fundamentals and central bank statements. US retail sales in March rebounded by 0.7%, or much higher than the 0.4% expected. What's more, February’s reading was revised higher too. March industrial production also rose by a robust 0.5% and again the previous month was revised higher. Such solid economic data and Jerome Powell's comments sent government bond yields north. Powell said the Fed needed more data and time before cutting rates. As a result, markets are now expecting only two cuts before the end of the year. That said, advanced indicators look mixed. The Philadelphia Fed Outlook may have surged in April but the Leading Index fell more than expected.
In Europe, ECB chair Christine Lagarde reiterated the bank's independent status vis-à-vis the Fed on monetary policy. François Villeroy de Galhau, governor of the Bank of France, also confirmed that a rate cut was in the offing. Traders are now expecting the ECB to act before the Fed and cut rates three times in 2024.
Elsewhere, China's first quarter GDP beat estimates. However, March’s data showed growth faltering so we can assume the pace seen in January and February might peter out. Retail sales rose 3.1% over 12 months in March, or less than the 4.8% progression expected. In addition, investment in property continued to contract.
Mounting geopolitical risk and rising bond yields took all risk assets lower over the week. We seized the opportunity to gradually increase weightings as we had previously cut exposure. From a technical standpoint, recent equity market falls have helped deflate extreme positioning. And fundamentally, the US economy is nowhere near a recession judging from the first quarterly results to appear. In Europe, analysts see first-quarter results falling sharply so there could be some pleasant surprises. In fixed income, we still prefer yield plays and duration.
European equities
In a complicated week, European markets fell sharply after months of trending higher. Government bond yields followed US Treasuries higher, triggering uncertainty over the timing of rate cuts as geopolitical risk in the Middle East intensified. Hawkish comments from ECB officials like Robert Holzmann and Joachim Nagel aggravated the trend by calling on investors to be cautious over future rate cuts. The good news is that a slight drop in geopolitical worries took Brent crude prices back down to around $87. Gold is still seen as a safe haven and has now risen by around 15% since the beginning of 2024, partly because of massive central bank buying.
Only consumer goods and food and beverages managed to eke out gains. Energy led losses as oil prices retreated and tech was hit after ASML beat expectations slightly but disappointed investors on sales and its order book. First-quarter sales were €5.29bn (vs. €5.45bn expected) while the group took in €3.61bn in orders, or much less than the €5.10bn pencilled in by analysts.
Following Kering's profit warning in March, LVMH did better than expected. True, first quarter sales were €20.69bn or less than the €21.03bn expected but this slight miss was due to wines and spirits; growth in the other divisions was as expected.
Elsewhere, Adidas jumped after first quarter sales rose 8% on a constant currency basis, or more than expected, and management raised guidance on growth. More importantly, the gross margin expanded 6.4% YoY. The brand is still benefiting from Yeezy inventory with close to €500m-worth to be sold in coming quarters.
US equities
Wall Street suffered its first real down week this year after Iran launched a direct attack on Israel on Saturday April 13. The Nasdaq’s 5% drop wiped out its outperformance in the previous week. The S&P 500 ended 3.3% lower while the Russell 1000 Value was only down 2.5% as inflation worries are good for value plays. Tech was hit by a semiconductor stock correction after ASML reported disappointing figures.
Unsurprisingly, first quarter results from most of America’s large banks were generally upbeat, largely due to investment banking. Goldman Sachs benefited from an M&A revival and Citigroup from fat fees on equity and bond issuance. However, banks see net interest income falling over 2024 as a whole. Wells Fargo and US Bancorp said financing would be more expensive due to persistently high rates. Insurance stocks fell after disappointing EPS at Travelers due to the cost of high winds and storms in the US. Allstate bucked the trend after natural catastrophe losses came in lower than expected. Las Vegas Sands (casino) tumbled on mass market weakness and the cost of renovations in its Macao outlets. Netflix once again reported upbeat figures for the first quarter but investors were disappointed the streaming giant had decided to stop releasing subscriber growth figures and the stock fell in extra hours. UnitedHealth rebounded from a low after reporting a first-quarter beat.
Emerging markets
The MSCI EM index had fallen 2.2% this week as of Thursday’s close amid a global selloff on escalating tensions in the Middle East. China (-0.89%) outperformed. Brazil and Taiwan led declines, falling 3.17% and 2.81% in USD. India and Korea also slid 2.14% and 2.08%, respectively.
China’s first-quarter GDP rose 5.3%, or more than the 4.8% estimated but March data delivered a mixed bag. Industrial production in March was up 4.5% YoY vs. 7.0% in January-February. Fixed asset investment grew 4.5% YTD, or slightly ahead of the 4% estimated. March retail sales were up 3.1% YoY vs. 4.8% estimated. New RMB loans in March 2024 totalled RMB 3.09tn vs. 3.89tn in March 2023. Housing prices continued to soften, but at a reduced pace. Beijing released the details of its trade-in programme for consumer products, including cars and home appliances. The state guided its telecom operators to phase out foreign chips from its network by 2027. China and Germany are planning to work on NEV rules. US Secretary of State Antony Blinken will leave for China on April 23 for a four-day trip. CATL’s first-quarter net profits beat expectations with strong cash flow. Midea acquired Arbonia’s climate unit for €760m, further strengthening overseas and HVAC exposure.
South Korea’s central bank governor flagged the possibility of an interest rate cut later this year. Samsung is in line to get up to $6.4bn in US grants for chip plants.
In Taiwan, TSMC reported a solid quarter, beating revenue and profit expectations on strong AI chip demand. Management toned down expectations for semiconductor sector growth and the gross margin outlook due to higher electricity costs and margin dilution from the 3nm ramp.
In India, CPI moderated to 4.85% in March while core CPI softened further to 3.2%. The merchandise trade balance in March narrowed to -$15.6bn vs. -$18.7bn in February. Tesla signed a deal with Tata Electronics to procure semiconductor chips. Jio Finance announced it had entered into a 50/50 JV with BlackRock in wealth management. Revenue growth at TCS was in line with a strong beat on margins. Infosys reported a comprehensive miss and weak guidance for FY25 on sluggish discretionary demand. Bajaj Auto reported a beat on revenue and EBITDA as the company benefited from a richer product mix. Almost 1 billion Indians began voting in elections which will last more than six weeks.
In Brazil, the government submitted a budget review to congress with a 2025 fiscal target of 0% rather than +0.5% (vs. market expectations for minus 0.5%). Vale’s iron ore output topped estimates thanks to strong performance in mines. Water utility company Sabesp is preparing for privatisation.
Mexico’s federal government announced no further incentives (low cost public land or tax cuts for investments in EV production). According to Reuters, there was pressure from the Office of the United States Trade Representative to keep Chinese automakers out of the free trade zone established under the North American Free Trade Agreement. Banorte reported solid first-quarter results, driven by flat NIM and stable asset quality but strong fee generation. The bank posted a healthy ROE of 22% and 15.5% in CET1.
Corporate debt
Credit
Bond markets were once again dominated by macro data and central bank comments. 10-year US Treasury yields hit a year high of 4.65% after surprisingly strong retail sales, robust labour market data and indications that inflation was stuck around 3.5%. Fed chair Jerome Powell no longer seems to be in a hurry to cut rates and markets have pushed back rate cut expectations to July and even September. European government bond yields rose in sympathy. Yields on Germany’s 10-year Bund hit 2.50%, a level not seen since the end of November 2023. Nevertheless, the ECB is still seen cutting in June.
On credit markets, investment grade spreads widened by 5bp to 115bp and high yield moved close to 370bp (+10bp), wiping out part of this year’s narrowing trend. It was the same story on subordinated financial debt with Euro CoCo spreads up slightly to 560bp. Call activity remained predictable and orderly: UniCredit called its 8% dollar CoCo at the first call date.
High yield issuance remained busy with Carnival Cruise (B) raising €500m at 5.75% due 2030, Boels Rental (BB-) €600m at 5.75% due 2030, Flutter Entertainment (BB+) €500m due 2029 and Techem (B+) €500m at 5.375% due 2029.
Between April 12-18, investment grade lost 0.66%, taking YTD performance back into negative territory (-0.25%). High yield, which is less prone to sensitivity, only dipped 0.35%, leaving YTD gains at 1.35%.
Convertibles
The segment ended the period lower due to tensions in the Middle East and rising US bond yields. Hotter-than-expected inflation and central bank statements reduced the likelihood of a rate cut at the June FOMC.
US tech stocks fell. Zscaler lost 5% over the week. Bitcoin plays also suffered with MicroStrategy plunging 20%% and Coinbase down 10%. Both companies had issued convertibles in the previous quarter.
In Europe, LVMH reassured markets by posting sales that were in line with investor expectations. Luxury stocks rebounded on the news. The semiconductor sector lost ground after ASML’s order book turned out to be lower than expected.
Ongoing risk aversion meant new issuance was muted. Swiss pharma DocMorris raised CHF 200m at 3% due 2029 and with a 35% premium.
Glossary
• Investment Grade: bonds rated as high quality by rating agencies.
• High Yield: corporate bonds with a higher default risk than investment grade bonds but which pay out higher coupons.
• Senior debt benefits from specific guarantees. Its repayment takes priority over other debts, known as subordinated debt.
• Debt is considered to be subordinated when its redemption depends on the earlier payment of other creditors. To offset the higher risk, subordinated Senior debt has priority over other debt instruments.
• Tier 2 / Tier 3 : subordinated debt segment.
• Duration: the average life of a bond discounted for all interest and capital flows.
• The spread is the difference between the actuarial rate of return on a bond and the rate of return on a risk-free loan with the same maturity.
• The so-called "Value" stocks are considered to be undervalued.
• Markit publishes the Main iTraxx index (125 leading European stocks), the HiVol (30 highly volatile stocks), and the Xover (CrossOver, 40 liquid and speculative stocks), as well as indices for Asia and the Pacific.
• EBITDA: Earnings before Interest, Taxes, Depreciation, and Amortization.
• Quantitative easing describes unorthodox monetary policy from a central bank in exceptional economic conditions.
• Stress Test: a process which simulates extreme but possible economic and financial conditions so as to assess any impact on banks and measure their resilience to these events.
• The PMI, for "Purchasing Manager's Index", is an indicator of the economic state of a sector.
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19/04/2024
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