Aktuelles und Perspektive.

Amid a volatile macroeconomic environment, real estate managers need to work harder to secure outsized returns.

“We see a critical structural supply gap of over 150 billion euros in the European logistics property market”

• The US mid-term elections have given the Democrats a majority in Congress and in several key states, which could limit Donald Trump’s agenda whilst preserving his powers in trade and foreign policy.

• The markets have reacted with a fall in government bond yields, a drop in oil prices and a rise in the price of gold back above $4,050 an ounce, against a backdrop of expectations of de-escalation in the Middle East and political deadlock in the United States.

• Post-election optimism, however, quickly faded: technology stocks and semiconductors triggered a sharp correction in US markets, despite generally solid economic indicators.

-   A more resilient global economy than expected. Despite trade and geopolitical tensions, high interest rates and rising commodity prices, global growth remains robust, driven in particular by investment in technology and strong corporate earnings.

-   Diversify beyond US artificial intelligence. Whilst the structural potential of AI remains undisputed, market concentration and uncertainties surrounding infrastructure roll-out suggest broadening sources of returns to other sectors, European equities and certain emerging markets.

-   The return of bonds to the asset allocation. With the rebuilding of the yield curve and more attractive yields, bonds are regaining their role as a diversifying asset in portfolios, with a focus on short- and medium-term maturities given the persistent fiscal risks associated with long-term maturities.

-  The Democratic surge has enabled the party to regain control of Congress, fuelled by voters’ frustration over inflation and Donald Trump’s policies.

-  Despite this victory, the President’s veto power and political tensions are likely to constrain the Democrats’ room for manoeuvre and slow the pace of reform.

-  Uncertainty surrounding data centre regulation could weigh on markets in the short term, but the economic outlook and seasonal trends remain favourable for equities.

• Mixed technological results have held back the market rally and triggered a correction on Nasdaq. However, corporate earnings remain broadly solid in the US and Europe.

• The Fed, the ECB and the Bank of Japan have kept their interest rates unchanged, whilst the US economy remains resilient. In Europe, economic indicators vary from country to country.

• Geopolitical uncertainties and rising energy prices remain risk factors.

• Risk assets declined amid concerns over technology and AI, as well as geopolitical tensions.

• Risk aversion supported government bonds, while PMIs confirmed the fragility of the European economy. In France, the OAT-Bund spread reached a record high of 172 basis points.

• Rising energy prices are increasing stagflation risks in Europe, while the price of gold fell by 3%.

In June 2025, Edmond de Rothschild Asset Management launched EdR SICAV Mission Europa, a European equity strategy aimed at supporting and strengthening European sovereignty.

Diversified across four complementary pillars (Security, Competitiveness, Innovation, and Finance), this strategy aims to support the continent’s structural transformation at the intersection of defense, the energy transition, and innovation.

Anthony Penel, the fund manager, discusses the challenges associated with this topic in this interview.

Multilateralism has never faced such challenges since the creation of the United Nations at the end of the Second World War. However, the COPs are the result of global agreements under the auspices of the United Nations. In this context, hopes for the next COP, scheduled to take place in Antalya, Turkey, from 9 to 20 November (a few days after the US "Midterms" elections on 3 November), may seem slim.

• US inflation is accelerating due to rising energy prices, whilst indicators of economic activity and confidence point to a gradual slowdown.

• Geopolitical tensions and uncertainties over energy supplies are keeping price pressures high, both in the US and in China.

• We remain positive on duration, favouring short and intermediate maturities, and have increased our exposure to equities.

• Trump refrains from attacking Iran ahead of the elections, but the conflict continues to provide lasting support for energy prices.

• Inflation remains elevated, while the Fed and the ECB are gradually adopting a slightly more accommodative tone.

• Short- and intermediate-term bonds remain preferred, while technology stocks benefit from strong earnings prospects.

• The strength of the U.S. economy is driving yields higher, despite a PCE reading that fell short of expectations. However, markets expect the Fed to maintain its current policy stance in October, with yield curves steepening.

• Long-term rates are rising, particularly in France, where the spread over Germany exceeds 140 basis points. Fiscal and political uncertainties are fuelling concerns about the sustainability of French debt.

• Oil prices are stabilizing at high levels, while tensions over diesel remain.