Asset management.

• The strength of the U.S. economy is driving yields higher, despite a PCE reading that fell short of expectations. However, markets expect the Fed to maintain its current policy stance in October, with yield curves steepening.

• Long-term rates are rising, particularly in France, where the spread over Germany exceeds 140 basis points. Fiscal and political uncertainties are fuelling concerns about the sustainability of French debt.

• Oil prices are stabilizing at high levels, while tensions over diesel remain.

Just a few months ago, the outlook seemed relatively clear: the slowdown in inflation was expected to allow central banks to gradually support the economic cycle through rate cuts. That outlook has now faded into the past.

In both the United States and Europe, the resilience of the economy and the return of inflationary pressures have led central banks to resume their monetary tightening policies. The Fed raised rates by 25 basis points in September, while the ECB had taken the same step a few days earlier. But beyond these decisions, it is above all the shift in the direction of monetary policy that, in our view, is of particular importance.

Growth is not just holding steady. It is robust, particularly in the United States, and the rise of artificial intelligence is driving growth across many sectors. Furthermore, inflation remains a clear concern. Central banks must remain vigilant, and markets must learn to adapt without the ongoing support of accommodative monetary policy. Against this backdrop, we look ahead to the months to come.

• Persistently high interest rates are dominating the markets: rising U.S. yields are increasing pressure on growth stocks and risky assets.

• Europe remains vulnerable due to energy risks and rising tensions over French debt, for which borrowing costs are increasing significantly.

• We are continuing to focus our portfolio allocation on short- to intermediate-term bonds and remain positive on stocks, particularly U.S. stocks, while we have begun to take some profits.