Thought
leadership.

At the Rimini Meeting, Mario Draghi made a harsh assessment: Europe believed that its economic power was enough to secure its geopolitical role. Recent events (war in Ukraine, tensions with the United States, rivalry with China) have dispelled this illusion. The European Union, a spectator to major upheavals, must transform itself if it wants to defend its fundamental values: democracy, freedom, sovereignty, and prosperity.

On either side of the Atlantic, these past few weeks have been bustling with news. Although we chose not to adjust our allocations in response to these headlines, we did strengthen several of our convictions and have identified new factors calling for vigilance.

Jerome Powell confirmed that the Fed would proceed with a rate cut in September while paying more attention to jobs data than inflation when deciding on monetary policy changes over the short term.

The eurozone was penalized by the return of political risk in France, where Prime minister François Bayrou's vote of confidence could bring down the government on September 8.

Japan and emerging countries saw a fall in asset prices, due to profit taking and news on the US import duties.

By Nabil Milali, Portfolio Manager/Strategist Multi-Asset & Overlay, Edmond de Rothschild Asset Management 

•    The Trump-Putin meeting did not result in a ceasefire, but it did initiate key discussions on Ukraine, followed by a meeting in Washington on security guarantees.
•    With job creation slowing and inflation picking up in the US, uncertainty surrounds US monetary policy, and J. Powell's statements in Jackson Hole are eagerly awaited.
•    The European economy is proving resilient with a rising PMI index, despite higher-than-expected UK inflation.

Short duration corporate bonds are, by definition, bonds issued by private companies with a residual maturity under 3 years. As their maturity date is relatively close, they naturally offer excellent visibility on their potential performance. 

Contractual revenue arrangements, ESG criteria and location are all critical for lenders in the data centre space.

•    Donald Trump and the candidates to succeed Jerome Powell are arguing for an urgent rate cut by the Fed in response to the slowdown in activity and inflation.
•    Powell's camp is urging the Fed to keep its current rates, as tariffs are expected to push inflation above 3% by the end of the year. 
•    In France, prime minister François Bayrou unveiled his proposed budget cuts. He hopes to reduce the government deficit to €43.5bn in 2026, but political consensus remains uncertain.

"Veritas" - Science and research, present and future allies of sustainable development

"Fortis est Veritas. “Strong is truth” is Oxford's motto, which you will read on many a pediment as you stroll through this magical place of knowledge and learning. 

“Veritas” is the motto of Harvard University.

•    Washington sent letters to several countries announcing between 20-50% in tariffs and additional levies on products and goods that are re-exported to third countries as a way of sidestepping the increases.
•    France set an ambitious target of 4.6% for the government deficit in 2026. Meanwhile, the UK is struggling with a weak economy but that will allow the Bank of England to cut rates.
•    In China, consumer prices rose slightly but production prices continued to suffer from deflation.

Europe is going through a period of profound change - industrial, energy and geopolitical - which is redefining the conditions for its long-term economic development. Against this backdrop, the question of savings allocation takes on a strategic dimension.

We offer you an in-depth analysis of this central issue:
“Re-engaging European savings: a strategic imperative for sustainable growth”.

This document explores the concrete levers for redirecting private savings towards the real economy, with a view to sovereignty, innovation and sustainable transition.

Translated with DeepL.com (free version)

•    A trade agreement with Vietnam has been reached, while negotiations with the EU, Japan, India, and Korea are proceeding with difficulty.
•    So far the tariff war appears to be leaving little trace on the US economy, as illustrated by mixed labor market indicators. 
•    Both houses of Congress passed the “One Big Beautiful Bill” in an even more expansive version than its initial draft.