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•    Diplomatic progress between the US and Iran has eased geopolitical concerns, pushing oil prices back below $100 a barrel and propelling the S&P 500 to a record high.
•    US GDP figures for the first quarter of 2026 have been revised downwards to +1.6% on an annualised basis (compared with +2% in the initial estimate).
•    US investment-grade bond issuance is expected to reach $2.5 trillion in 2026, with a significant portion coming from hyperscalers.

•    In the absence of adecisive diplomatic progress, markets are swinging between worry and renewed optimism. The high volatility in interest rates reflects uncertainty over the trajectory of prices and central bank policy.
•    Despite contracting PMI, the prospect of less aggressive tightening by the ECB is supporting European equities, with defensive stocks, utilities, telecoms and IT outperforming.
•    Activity in the US remains solid, driven by the manufacturing sector. However, several sectors (industry, energy, consumer goods) are underperforming and the technology sector has seen profit-taking.

Logistics has been one of the best performing sectors within European real estate in recent years, as the rise of e-commerce drives demand for distribution hubs and urban warehouse facilities.

In a world economy defined by a rapidly progressing energy transition, decarbonisation, there are no shortage of opportunities to provide debt financing for infrastructure projects.

•    US equity markets are once again banking on a scenario of sufficient growth and contained inflation, favouring technology and semiconductors, while defensive sectors are being shunned.
•    The record fall in crude oil stocks and the possibility of a prolonged blockade of the Strait of Hormuz show that the US is using up its safety margin without addressing the structural risk of a lasting energy shock.
•    In the eurozone, core inflation is falling but consumer confidence has dropped to its lowest level since the Covid crisis

Following our previous editorials, “Cheaper, baby, cheaper” and “Jobs, baby, jobs,” the latest developments in the war in Iran have brought the urgent need for energy security in Europe and elsewhere to the forefront. In China, the initial announcements last March regarding the 15th Five-Year Plan (2026–2030) continue to emphasize renewable energy, electrification, and energy storage, but also look ahead to e-fuels and hydrogen. These Chinese programs have industrial, environmental, and security/sovereignty ambitions.

•    The rebound in risk assets following tensions in the Middle East is more a case of technical repositioning, rather than an improvement in fundamentals. It illustrates a market reflex that has become almost Pavlovian: automatically rush to buy on weakness. 
•    Behind the façade of market rebounds, the energy shock is still acute and now spreading to the most dependent economies, particularly in Europe and Asia. This disconnect between buoyant financial markets and the real economy is the main weakness today.
•    Maintaining exposure to risk assets should not be a case of excessive optimism but simply recognition that the cycle is still in place. However, we need to be more vigilant and more selective, notably with more exposure to the US and China.

The market movement observed in recent weeks fits into a rather classic mechanism, similar to a pendulum swinging from excess fear to relief. However, this time, the breadth of the movement reflects more than a simple technical adjustment. After a phase of brutal escalation in the Middle East, the intensity and speed of the rebound posted by risk assets was particularly surprising. Indeed, this upward move ranks within the 100th percentile of 10-day rallies recorded by the S&P since 1950, lifted by growth stocks – and notably tech-related sectors (hardware, semi-conductors and memories). As if investors, already hardened by the series of shocks in recent years – pandemic, Ukraine, trade tensions – had already factored in the idea that whatever the geopolitical crisis, it is followed by rapid normalisation.

Yet behind this rebound, the change in fundamentals has been more subtle, if not concerning. Far from having abated, the energy crisis has continued to spread across the most exposed economies, notably in Asia and Europe. 

The resilience of emerging corporate debt: a driver of diversification and opportunity

Whilst emerging markets have been at the forefront of geopolitical discussions since the start of the conflict in the Middle East, emerging corporate debt markets have, so far, seen only a limited impact compared with other asset classes.
The conflict has mainly reignited inflationary fears through rising oil prices. This situation has weighed particularly heavily on long-dated bonds, regardless of where they are issued. By contrast, emerging corporate bonds, which typically have shorter average maturities, have weathered this period of tension better. 
Furthermore, exposure to regions far removed from the conflict, such as Latin America, but which are benefiting from rising oil prices, has helped to support this asset class. 

•    In the US, this week’s data tended to reinforce the idea of knock-on inflation, both from Donald Trump’s tariffs and from services, even though the US Treasury said that tariffs deemed illegal in court would be replaced in July.
•    France’s GDP growth in the first quarter came in at a resilient 0.3% while Germany revised down its growth forecasts for 2026 to 0.5% from 1% and for 2027 to 0.9% vs. 1.7%.
•    China’s first quarter GDP rose 5%, or more than the 4.8% expected, thanks to industrial production growing 5.7%.

The first quarter of 2026 was marked by intense geopolitical instability, culminating in the conflict in Iran in early March. Despite this highly volatile environment, our European equity strategy “Mission Europa” successfully navigated market turbulence while maintaining its core objectives. With a fragile ceasefire signed on April 8, we discuss the portfolio’s strategy with Anthony Penel, European equities portfolio manager.

•    De-escalation in the Middle East led to a fall in government bond yields and a rebound in risk assets. Monetary policy expectations were also revised lower.
•    The IEA’s chairman said oil supply constraints could worsen markedly in April. 12 million barrels a day will be lost once tankers already at sea when hostilities broke out have delivered their cargoes.
•    March business surveys show that the eurozone was more affected by the conflict than the US. In the eurozone, PMIs look more fragile in countries like Italy which are heavily exposed to exports to the Gulf and surveys are now in contraction territory.