Liderazgo de pensamiento.

•    Nvidia’s excellent results failed to stem profit taking on the Nasdaq and assuage some concerns around AI.
•    Doubts over a Fed rate cut in December only amplified market worries.
•    Volodymyr Zelensky rekindled ceasefire hopes by declaring that he was prepared to work with the peace plan put forward by the US and Russia.

•    The end of the US shutdown failed to instil fresh optimism on financial markets.
•    However, European equities are so far proving more resilient.
•    We remain neutral on duration and cautious on equities, in particular in the US.

•    Divergent statements from Fed members regarding rate cuts are increasing market unease.
•    The US government shutdown, now the longest ever, is prompting both sides in Congress to engage in dialogue which may soon result in a compromise.
•    Across the eurozone, the Composite PMI continues to rise, and economic data has been unexpectedly positive since the end of October.

Edmond de Rothschild Real Estate Investment Management (REIM) is further expanding its European logistics and light-industrial strategy with additional equity commitments in Q3 2025 with an immediate deployment in  two strategic transactions in France. These acquisitions reflect the platform’s continued commitment to high-quality, well-located assets that offer both stability and growth potential. Edmond de Rothschild is pursuing further acquisitions in the Benelux and Germany too.

•    The Fed and the Bank of Canada have cut their rates by 25 basis points, while the Bank of Japan has postponed its next rate hike.
•    Jerome Powell doused hopes for another move down in December by revealing that the committee had rarely been more divided on growth/inflation prospects. 
•    France saw third-quarter GDP rebound by 0.5% so the government's full-year forecast will be met.

After three years of COPs in fossil fuels countries, COP 30 returns to a more fitting destination in Belém, Brazil. There will undoubtedly be significant pressure, especially given the absence of the world's largest economy, the United States, and Europe's likely more defensive stance. Europe has traditionally led climate COPs over the past decade (Paris Agreement, COP 26 in Glasgow, etc.). 

•    Donald Trump plans to meet Xi Jinping amid growing tensions between the two global powers.
•    In Japan, the Liberal Democrat party joined a coalition with the reform party Ishin and Sanae Takaichi became prime minister. This appointment sent Japanese equities higher.
•    The earnings season is proving robust, with 58% of European companies exceeding expectations. The US has done even better with 84% of companies reporting beats. However, a few disappointments among large companies call for caution.

•    US-China trade tensions have flared up again, following China's announcement to tighten controls on exports containing more than 0.1% Chinese rare earths, while Donald Trump riposted by threatening additional 100% tariffs on Chinese products from November.
•    In France, the new prime minister Sébastien Lecornu managed to escape two no-confidence votes after suspending pension reform. The new government will now face a debate on the budget and it hopes to keep the deficit below 5%.
•    The US shutdown has deprived the Fed of statistics so it has to use regional Fed activity reports and they suggest economic stagnation and declining employment.

The global economy has entered the final quarter of 2025 in a state of serenity that few observers would have predicted last Spring, in the thick of the trade conflict. Six months after Liberation Day, despite a few regional disparities, global growth data has held up: according to IMF estimates, GDP is projected to grow +2.9% in 2025 and 2026 - a very similar pace to 2024. Yet the environment is weighed down by higher tariffs, record debt levels - in the US, France and even Japan - with plans to introduce fiscal stimulus, and sticky inflation, which has remained above the Fed’s targets for over four years. With GDP growth projected at +2.2%, the economy is more vigorous in the United States than in other developed countries. Investment spending is largely driven by AI, while housing investment has remained very sluggish. Consumer spending has stayed robust, but the more modest households are showing signs of weakness. The 10% most wealthy consumers account for 50% of spending, boosted by the ‘wealth effect’ when the S&P index is at its highest. All these factors suggest that private demand is less homogeneous than it seems. Europe, on the other hand, remains stuck in a hesitant recovery under new leadership from Germany - which is striving to accelerate its fiscal response. However, implementation is taking a long time, and recovery plans have not begun to support capital expenditure at this stage. Nonetheless, Europe has clearly set a new course.

•    Sébastien Lecornu's surprise resignation caused French stocks to falter momentarily. However, the former French Prime Minister's stated desire to avoid a dissolution reassured investors.
•    The election of Sanae Takaichi as head of the PLD party led to a sharp rise in Japanese equities and a fall in the yen, due to her positions in favor of accommodative fiscal and monetary policies. 
•    The European Union wants to protect its steel industry by halving import quotas and raising levies on imports above this quota to 50%. Meanwhile, in the United States, the government shutdown persists without a clear resolution in sight.

Between climate imperatives and the quest for strategic autonomy, can energy sovereignty go hand in hand with sustainability? Éric de Tessières, Group Chief Sustainability Officer at Edmond de Rothschild, shares his vision. 

Strong conviction of Edmond de Rothschild Asset Management for over a decade: data is the quintessential strategic asset.