Liderazgo de pensamiento.

Europe is entering a new phase of massive investment supported by the historic rearming and infrastructure spending plans announced recently by Germany and the European commission. This major turnaround is part of broader efforts to support reindustrialisation, technological innovation, and economic sovereignty.
It also offers a highly attractive environment for Europe’s small and mid-sized companies, particularly as their cyclical and domestic profile should allow them to fully reap the benefits these investment plans will generate for the Eurozone’s economy.

•    A meeting scheduled for this weekend between US and Chinese delegations suggests that both countries are ready to negotiate. 
•    Divergences are appearing among central banks: the Bank of England has cautiously cut rates, while the Fed has chosen to maintain rates, navigating between signs of slowing growth and inflationary pressures.
•    In Germany, Friedrich Merz was elected Chancellor after two votes in Parliament, an unprecedented event, but his determination reassured investors of future political stability.

So far this year, market performances have been essentially driven by political factors. Although the S&P500 index is now returning to its pre-Liberation Day levels, all indicators suggest that CEO and consumer confidence has dived since Trump’s announcements. The market rebound seems fuelled by a notion conveyed by the Trump administration that from July 4th, the government would turn the page on protectionism and switch to its tax cut and deregulation programmes

The world is changing rapidly - and not always for the better. The geopolitical landscape is becoming increasingly tense, with extended conflicts, fragmentation of alliances, climate change, the resurgence of protectionism and the rise of populism. These dynamics are causing deep and lasting disruptions that challenge supply chains, economic stability, and population security.

•    The US administration is ready to talk to China about lowering tariffs to 50-65%, in exchange for concessions.
•    Uncertainty and trade tensions have weighed on macroeconomic data, with a slight deterioration in US and European PMI indices, and US companies now considering passing on higher costs in sales prices.
•    In the US, several members of the Federal Reserve are supporting a cautious approach to rate cuts, because of inflationary risks linked to the trade war. In Europe, the ECB's chief economist is not ruling out a rate cut in the near future.

• Despite contradictory announcements from the Trump administration, markets reacted positively to the temporary tariff exemptions on Chinese technology imports and progress in trade talks with Japan.
• The Fed is taking a wait-and-see approach to avoid inflation expectations becoming unhinged, as the economic outlook worsens, despite solid US retail sales due to pre-tariff advance purchases. 
• The ECB is benefiting from the euro's appreciation, which gives it room for manoeuvre to ease monetary policy without worrying about the Fed's immobility.

•    China, being the only country not benefiting from the 90-day truce, faces extremely high tariffs, thereby intensifying trade tensions.
•    Uncertainties surrounding inflation and growth continue to rise, especially in the United States, heightening fears of a recession.
•    European retail sales were up in Q1 2025, confirming that business in Europe is holding up well.

We don't know when the Trump & Co. whirlwind will end. No one knows, and neither does he. Perhaps with the next US midterm elections in November 2026. In the meantime, the set of decisions taken has the immense merit of waking up Europe, and first and foremost, the European Union. Without waiting for Donald Trump to return to the White House, the old continent has been offered the roadmap for its economic revival set out in the Draghi report published in September 2024. 

•    D. Trump's "Liberation Day" announcements have heightened uncertainty for the markets and the Fed, with a series of tariffs on all imports except Canada (which is already hit by 25% tariffs) and Mexico.
•    Initial estimates forecast a contraction in the US GDP by -1.5% and an inflation increase of +1.5%.
•    In Europe, the euro's appreciation against the dollar and the expectation of competitive prices for Chinese products lacking outlets on the US market could mitigate the impact of these measures

After 30 years of «happy» globalization, the world is a changed place post-pandemic, hit by geopolitical risk and plagued by daily cyber-attacks, with citizens seeking protection. The stock market outlook is particularly attractive for companies exposed to the security theme, which offer investors and the general public the resilience they so desperately need. 

•    Discussions between the U.S. and Russia on implementing the partial ceasefire in the Black Sea are hindered by Moscow's demand for lifted sanctions, maintaining inflation uncertainty related to grain exports.
•    The U.S. plans to impose new tariffs of 25% on countries acquiring Venezuelan oil and auto imports, coinciding with a stricter immigration policy that may impact supply chains and economic growth.
•    In Europe, positive effects from Germany’s stimulus plan are reflected in a slight rise in the IFO business climate index, although mixed manufacturing PMIs indicate ongoing sectoral challenges alongside disappointing services indices.

For almost three years now, AI has single-handedly dominated financial news headlines, generating a flurry of content and analysis. But never has it been so difficult to make a pragmatic assessment of its potential and its advancement.
The confusion today stems from three factors: first, technology is developing at a startling rate. I still remember, back in 2019, reading Architects of Intelligence: The truth about AI from the people building it, a collection of 23 lengthy interviews with the most eminent AI specialists at the time. The recent breakthroughs have undeniably taken the world by surprise - including executives at Meta and Microsoft, and even Elon Musk.